WHY CONFIDENCE IS KEY

AJ Burnett's been downright inconsistant this year, make no bones about it. But I always find myself rooting for the guy because I know that when he's on, he can be unstoppable. That's why the Yankees signed him and that's what he proved to NY fans in 2009.

What AJ lacks is confidence. He can throw 5 shutout innings, strike out 7 easy, but God forbid someone turns on a 3-2 pitch and puts it in the seats... suddenly, AJ is unsure of himself.

At that point, Eiland's got to get out there. Talk to him, remind him what he's capable of. A lot of the time I see Eiland and Girardi looking at each other in the dugout and nothing gets done until it's too late and momentum goes the other team's way. Stop looking at the charts when it comes to AJ, just stroke the dude. Build him up, he needs it. Some personalities require that. It's like raising a child. Let's face it, AJ is a dominant pitcher and this is all in his head. He can overcome this.

Tonight, AJ pitches against Kevin Millwood. Millwood is 3-15, but that record is deceiving because the Orioles are actually winning now because of Showalter's personal quest to prove to the Yankees that's he's the greatest manager ever. Millwood is a great pitcher and the Orioles are very aggressive now.

AJ needs to pound the strike zone early, change up his pitches and trust his stuff. Throw that together with the Yankees actually hitting tonight off Millwood and I see them taking this game 6-3.

This weekend is a big deal for the Yankees. While the Baltimore Orioles are in last place, they are good. While the Yankees need to score first tonight, it all hinges on AJ and his confidence. If he doesn't let a base hit get inside his head and if the Yankees take these next three games to right themselves and get into a rhythm, they will be ready for the Rays next week in the Bronx. But if the confidence of AJ is not there tonight, It's going to be a long hard road. Tonight, AJ dominates... I hope.

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