PREDICTING THE MVP & CY YOUNG AWARDS

It’s hard to believe that it is already September, which means we are in the final sprint for post-season play and voting for the best of the best. There are a lot of deserving candidates out there, so there is no sure vote.

It’s no secret that good pitching is the key to winning games, and this is the year of the pitcher. Question is, which pitcher is going to be King of the mound this year?

NL Cy Young candidates

A: Cliff Lee: 16-7, 2.47 ERA, 204 strikeouts, 1.031 WHIP. Lee went 5-0 in August and had at least 10 strikeouts in eight games this year.B: Cole Hamels: 13-7, 2.63 ERA, 169 strikeouts, 0.97 WHIP. Hamels holds the best WHIP stats in the National league, would have more wins if his team gave him better run support.

C: Roy Halladay: 16-5, 2.49 ERA, 195 strikeouts, 1.06 WHIP. Halladay has 7 complete games this season and has walked only 25 batters this season. He also has the best strikeout to walk ration in the big leagues. Is there ever a year when this guy isn’t in the CY Young discussion?
D: Clayton Kershaw: 17-5, 2.45 ERA, 222 strikeouts, 1.02 WHIP. Kershaw trails only Halladay in complete games pitched; he also leads everyone in wins, innings pitched, and strikeouts. He is second in WHIP and ERA.

Cy Young prediction: Clayton Kershaw
Runner-up: Roy Halladay

AL Cy Young Candidates

A: Josh Beckett: 12-5, 2.49 ERA, 155 strikeouts, 0.98 WHIP. Beckett has bounced back nicely from 2010 but has a lower strikeout total than the other candidates. He has done well keeping runs scored to a minimum allowing no more than five in any game this season.

B: James Shields: 14-10, 2.77 ERA, 205 strikeouts, 1.02 WHIP. Shields has pitched 10 complete games this season for the Rays. He could become a free agent at the end of the season if they don’t pick up his club option, but I doubt this happens.C: CC Sabathia: 19-7, 2.97 ERA, 211 strikeouts, 1.17 WHIP. Sabathia should make 30 starts for the 10th time in his career. His strikeout ratio trails only Kershaw and Verlander and has the second most wins in the majors.

D: Jered Weaver: 16-7, 2.49 ERA, 176 strikeouts, 1.03 WHIP. Weaver is argued to be the second most consistent pitcher after Verlander this year. He also has the best ERA in the league.
E: Justin Verlander: 21-5, 2.34 ERA, 224 strikeouts, 0.91 WHIP. Verlander is first in wins, strikeouts, and WHIP in the league. He has also gone 18-2 since April and has a no-hitter this year.

Cy Young prediction: Justin Verlander
Runner-up: Jered Weaver

Pitching wins games, but you also need a good offense to give you the run support. Question is, who has been the most valuable player?

NL MVP Candidates

A: Joey Votto: .316BA, 26 HR, 90 RBI. Can he repeat? His home run, RBI and OPS totals will most likely fall short from last year. His team does not have a shot at repeating their division title, so this will probably cost him votes.B: Prince Fielder: .292BA, 31 HR, 108 RBI. Fielder is argued to be half of one of the better offensive duos in the majors, but a teammate has been more effective offensively and probably fairs better to win. He is a league leader in RBI’s.

C: Matt Kemp: .319BA, 32 HR, 107 RBI. His average, stolen bases (37), home runs and RBI’s look impressive, but his high strikeouts (137) will probably cost him. He also plays for the Dodgers, who have had a less than impressive season which will cost him some votes.
D: Ryan Braun: .333BA, 27 HR, 95 RBI. Braun has had an impressive year leading the league in OBP (.402) and slugging percentage (.590). He is also among league leaders in runs scored and batting average. He also is second with stolen bases (31).

MVP prediction: Ryan Braun
runner-up: Matt Kemp

AL MVP Candidates

A: Adrian Gonzalez: .342BA, 23 HR, 105 RBI. Gonzalez has the best batting average, and amongst leaders in OBP and SLG percentage; however….he is sure to split some votes between himself and another Red Sox candidate.

B: Jacoby Ellsbury: .312BA, 24 HR, 85 RBI. He has the second best batting average, and the most stolen bases; however he is sure to split some votes with Gonzalez .C: Jose Bautista: .304BA, 40 HR, 92 RBI. He’s having another great year, and can still come close to the same number of home runs as last year. The fact that his team is not in contention in a much more competitive AL East division than last year is sure to cost him votes.

D: Justin Verlander: Yes, the wins and ERA are impressive; however pitchers have their own award. He is worth a mention though.

E: Robinson Cano: .305BA, 24 HR, 105 RBI. Cano is quietly making a case for MVP again with his consistent hitting and offensive and defensive skills but will he split votes with another Yankee?
F: Curtis Granderson: .269BA, 38 HR, 109 RBI. His batting average is lower, however his consistency this year is amazing compared to last year. The changes he has made have helped the Yankees win, and the power numbers and RBI’s don’t hurt either. He also has more extra base hits.

MVP prediction: Curtis Granderson
runner-up: Adrian Gonzalez

Clearly we're Yankee fans, clearly we root. But as far as this post is concerned, I’m glad I get to predict who will win, rather than give the news when the voting is done. It will be interesting to see how far off these predictions are. But like they say, you can’t predict baseball…



--Jeana Bellezza --BYB Writer and Editor



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WHY ROTATION QUESTIONS LOOM AS YANKEES ROLL

It doesn’t matter if there’s a loss once in a while, the Yankees are doing everything right while people in Las Vegas are realizing their Red Sox / Phillies World Series picks from April were absolutely ridiculous. You want to believe it? Believe this… Josh Beckett is now out with an ankle injury for the Red Sox. He got hurt in the 4^th inning of a game against the Rangers 2 days ago. That’s their ace Ladies and Gentlemen. Look, athletes have a tough job, they need to play to the best of their ability and sometimes they get hurt. I never like to see a player get hurt because I know how much dedication they give to their ball club, but let’s face facts, the Red Sox fans would be quite pleased to see the Yankees players get hurt. While I’m not celebrating yet, I’m happy their ace was shut down. What’s bigger though is the evil Red Sox are dropping like a rock, now 2 ½ games out of first place.

Look, the Red Sox are not going away and you have to respect that they are always there, pests, never willing to let you go win it all. But the mighty New York Yankees are making a case, we’re playing hard and winning games any way possible and sending a message… we will win 28 this year, or we die trying.

CC Sabathia needs much more credit than he deserves, yes, while he can’t seem to solve the puzzle to beating the Red Sox consistently, he has literally carried the Yankees through 19 victories this year and on the days he doesn’t look good, he knows it and re-invents himself right in front of our eyes and wins anyway. He’s our ace and we love him there. So it was good to hear that at this point in the season when every player starts running out of gas, having a 6 man rotation for the Yankees can give CC an extra day of rest. On the flip side, you have to wonder is that’s a bad thing. Will the extra day break CC’s rhythm? Even CC doesn't like the extra rest. Read about it HERE. I guess we just have to see. Don’t forget, during the playoffs, CC was the 3 day rest man, adrenaline pumping and ready to go. Now he needs to wait another day. An interesting theory, I’ll get back to you on that one, it’s something to think about.

Ivan Nova, the kid who’s really proven he can pitch in high pressure situations is slated for this Thursday against the Orioles. It’s a makeup game at 1:05pm. This kid’s looking to get his 16^th win. Are you kidding me? This is the kid I was worried about, remember? This is the kid I was suggesting needed to get his head together with runners on base. What happened? Confidence happened. I have faith in this kid now, he’s having the season of his life and should be discussed in Rookie of the Year talk, he’s earned it.

My biggest concern is who can be the Yankees 3^rd and 4^th reliable starters? Do you know? I'll tell you what, the Yankees don’t have a clue, because if they did, they would have set their 5 man rotation weeks ago, but there are way too many question marks. Bartolo Colon has pitched OK as of late, but he can’t seem to snag a victory. Phil Hughes has good days and bad days. Freddy Garcia has been reliable, but his last outing wasn’t too good. You can suggest that he’s our guy and 1 bad outing isn’t a big deal, but what if that 1 bad outing is during the playoffs and we're eliminated? Then it IS a big deal.

AJ Burnett pitched well against the Red Sox and the spin was Yoda Rothschild tweaked something in his mechanics. If that is true, that will get AJ right and if in the next start, he’s just as dominant, believe it or not ladies and gentlemen, he’s our 3^rd starter. This is my opinion, the Yankees don’t like to admit mistakes, and they won’t with this guy either. If he has 1 more good start, he stays, meanwhile Colon and Phil Hughes have contributed here and there, they are too risky. I think it would be smarter to move someone like a Colon to the pen, he may be better in short spurts.

Besides, Freddy Garcia has always been my favorite anchor because he’s done well because of the way he mixes up his pitches and the fact that he’s a veteran. So yes, he’d be my 4^th guy. Don’t look at this and think I’m a moron, I just laid it out for you, this is what we have Ladies and Gentlemen, the Yankees pitching staff.

Do I have hope? Yes. Am I worried? Alittle. But one thing you have to do is give credit to Joe Girardi and Brian Cashman, it may not be a pen full of aces, but it’s a decent crew that have worked hard all year. The big question is, can they finish strong in our Quest for 28? We shall see.

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WHY IT'S JUST BASEBALL SUZYN

(Photo: Getty)

So another Yankees/Red Sox Series has come and gone and it seems the Sox had the Yanks number. While the results weren’t what the Yankees were hoping for, at least it was entertaining. The Yankees came into the series having won 7 in a row and Boston was reeling. In the end, Boston took a 2-1 series win and improved to 10-2 against the Yanks this

season.After Friday, nobody would have predicted that. The Yanks pulled out a 3-2 victory even with a sub-par performance by Bartolo Colon. MSG and 1050 ESPN personality Bill Daughtry was quick to point out that the Mets R.A. Dickey pitched a better game in the Mets 4-3 loss to the Braves Friday night. How do you like that? Colon wasn’t great, but he kept his team in the game.

(Photo: Getty)

What’s the saying? You’re only as good as the next day’s starter? Well, Saturday we saw CC Sabathia, who’s having a monster year against everyone except Boston against John Lackey. Let's face it, the Yankees tee off on Lackey more than Adam Scott and his Titlest. Well, Boston got to CC and his struggles against the Sox continued.



Sunday night saw Josh Beckett vs. Freddy Garcia. Clearly Boston had the edge going into the game. Well, the Yanks had the lead and Mo coughed it up and Phil Hughes flat out ate it late.



On paper, the Sox should have destroyed the Yanks on Friday and Sunday. Their stellar offense should’ve lit up the Yanks reclamation projects. And then Saturday should’ve been a walk in the park for the Yanks. But as a despised broadcaster on an unnamed network likes to say, “That’s why they play the game.” This is why I think SABRmetrics is pointless and you should trust your scouts and what your eyes see on the field.

And here's my best impersonation of John Sterling and Suzyn Waldman on paper:



John Sterling: "This weekend proves it's just baseball... Nobody in their right mind would’ve predicted it. You know Suzyn... Bob Ryan of the Boston Globe said (pause) the 2-1 pitch to Eduardo Nunez... low. The Yanks would have the best record in baseball if they could beat those pesky Red Sox."



Suzyn Waldman: "That’s a great point John.”



John Sterling: "Here’s the 3-1 pitch, swung on, drilled deep to left. It is high. It is FAR. It is…. It’s foul."

In all seriousness though, the 3 things this weekend proved is that baseball is unpredictable, the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry is always fun, and the Yankees are playing well despite the injuries this year, except when they play the Sox and that needs to change if a trip to the World Series is in the cards, bottom line.

-- Lem Allen, BYB Freelance Writer

bybcurmudgeon@gmail.com

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WHY IT AIN'T OVER TILL IT'S OVER

Everything was set up in this one. Get a lead in the middle innings, hand the ball off to Rafael Soriano, David Robertson, and Mariano Rivera and enjoy the off day. Well, the first three of those happened, but the last didn't, and thus it ended up being a very tough loss in extra innings.(Photo: Getty)

Freddy Garcia was matched up against Josh Beckett in this one, and before it started I didn't know what Garcia would do. Would he blow up? Would he pitch a good game? Well, he did the latter. Garcia gutted through five innings, and allowed just one run. He was seeing eye singled and infield hit to death, to go along with a very tight strike zone. Big ups for Freddy being able to overcome the adversity to go five innings, allow five hits, three walks, and just one strikeout and one run.



The Yankees offense didn't do much in this game. Just solo shots by Eduardo Nunez of Beckett--which came right after Russell Martin being thrown out trying to stretch a single into a double--and Brett Gardner off of Matt Albers in the seventh to give the Yankees a 2-1 lead.(Photo: Getty)

Rafael Soriano and David Robertson each pitched scoreless innings, but Mo came on and couldn't get the job done. He allowed a lead off double to Marco Scutaro. Jacoby Ellsbury bunted him to third, although they had the out at third if Nunez didn't play in, and Dustin Pedroia drove him in on a sac fly. Phil Hughes then came on in the bottom of the 10th and allowed a walk off single to Josh Reddick. For shame.



The Yankees squandered many opportunities in this game. They went 0-10 with runners in scoring position and they left 10 men on base.

(Photo: New York Daily News)

Also a quick note: Jorge Posada was benched for this game, and it was a surprise because normally Posada starts against righties. Maybe this could be a sign of things to come with Jorge. This could be the beginning of the end for him. You can read that story HERE.



Final Score Red Sox 3 - Yankees 2



I hate losing to this team. It just plain sucks. But whether you like it or not, you gotta put it in the rear view mirror, and move on to the next series. The Yankees have an off day on Monday before they face the Angels on Tuesday. With Phil Hughes pitching 1/3 of an inning we don't know if he'll start or not on Tuesday. If not, Ivan Nova (10-4, 3.81 ERA)will be matched against Dan Haren (12-6, 2.81 ERA)







--Jesse Schindler, BYB Staff Writer









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WHY SABATHIA NEEDS TO SOLVE THE BOSTON PUZZLE

(Photo: Reuters)
CC Sabathia didn't look like he was in control the entire outing today and you could almost tell it wasn't his day early. They were hitting him all over Fenway. To me, that's the worst feeling in the world as a fan. Your top guy is out there against a division rival that you hate and you can't bare to see him get shelled, but that's exactly what happened today. Sabathia lasted just 6 innings, giving up 9 hits and 7 runs. He struck out 6 and walked 1. Not good.
(Photo: Getty)
Early in the game the Yankees looked good. They were down 2-0 and they tied it up 2-2. Eric Chavez was the guy who got it tied up with an RBI single after Nick Swisher hit into a double play. At least a run scored though to make it 2-1. Then later, Derek Jeter knocked in a run with an RBI single in the 5th and in the 8th, Mark Teixeira cranking his 32rd home run. The rest was all Boston unfortunately. Not a good day for our offense, or the Yankees as a whole for that matter.
By the way, Eric Chavez has the facial hair going I noticed. Look, I know I said Russell Martin was the Burt Reynolds look alike when he had his short lived mustache, but have you seen Chavez? My God, he looks just like he was cast in the remake of Smokey & the Bandit. Absolutely hilarious, he looks just like Burt. Jorge Posada looked like he was sporting a mustache too. Alittle team unity maybe? Who knows, but you do what you need to do to become a team and if the mustache works, then do it.
The Yankees looked patient early against Lackey who was up to something like 79 pitches by the 4th or 5th inning, but then things started to fall apart for CC. The worst part about today was CC is now 0-4 against the Red Sox, a team he has to beat because not only is he our ace, but this team is pesky and it's necessary to beat these guys, every time. If there's one thing CC needs to learn, it's this... Find a way to beat Boston. YOU HAVE TO.

Final Score: Red Sox 10 - Yankees 4. Tomorrow night it's Josh Beckett against the Yankees rock, Freddy Garcia. Now to me, this match up is a tough one. Clearly my money is on Freddy and the Yankees, but Beckett has been dominant and what we need to do is make sure Beckett makes mistakes, throws alot of pitches and the Yankees need to be patient at the plate. We can beat him, we just need to be smart about it. Good luck tomorrow Freddy, we're all rooting for you.

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WHY CRUCIFYING BURNETT NEEDS TO STOP

(Photo: Getty)
I’m sorry, but I’m at the end of my rope with people continually ranting against AJ Burnett. Suggestions that AJ needs to be traded or released because he’s not pulling his weight are ridiculous. Let me give you an important piece of information. AJ Burnett is not a superstar. He’s never been a superstar. He’s a very good pitcher that sometimes gets into trouble and barely ever gets run support. That’s it, end of story. For anyone who thought we were getting CC Sabathia "light" was reading the wrong headlines. Read Baseball Reference. They have all of AJ’s career stats, and while some years look stellar, some don’t and guess what, it’s always been that way, so get used to it.

AJ Burnett was on a pitching staff with the Florida Marlins that consisted of Brad Penny, Josh Beckett and Carl Pavano and when the Yankees played the Marlins in the 2003 World Series, AJ was hurt and didn’t even pitch. When AJ went to the Blue Jays, he was behind Doc Halladay in the rotation and while he had 1 great season winning 18 games in 2008, he had a few seasons that stunk. 2001 he was 11-12 with a 4.05 ERA. He was 10-8 for 2006 and 2007 with an ERA in the high 3's those 2 years. His best record ever? 2008, 18-10. Fact.

This is a pitcher that looks much better if his offense hits and scores for him and if not, whatever mistakes he makes on the mound are amplified ten-fold. This is nothing new about AJ Burnett. No, he’s no scrub, but yes, he has his problems, just like every other pitcher does. Larry Rothschild has really done some magic this season getting AJ right, and while it hasn’t always worked, I think everyone can agree, it’s gotten better. Last year AJ was lost, 10-15 with a 5.26 ERA, his worst season ever; No confidence and no great quality starts the second half. This year he started strong and while he hasn’t exactly continued strong, he’s in a much better situation than last year.

I don’t dislike AJ Burnett, in fact, I dig his stuff, but tweaks are continual with AJ Burnett and Larry Rothschild knows this. So, he’ll need to make them, and fast. Even in WHY CASHMAN BELIEVES IN HIS YANKEES, I even chose AJ Burnett as the 3^rd starter if we were to start the playoffs tomorrow. Who did I pick as our number 2? Bartolo Colon. I know, it sounds crazy but if you need consistency, you need to do that. Put it in perspective; If CC Sabathia were to win a Game 1 and Colon pitched like he’s been pitching all year and won Game 2, at least if AJ didn’t get run support, we’d only be down 2-1 instead of 1-1 and Freddy Garcia could use his veteran experience to take us to the next round. That’s not a slight against AJ Burnett, that’s the reality.

The Yankee brass sold us all a bill of goods in 2009 propping AJ Burnett up on a pedestal when he came over to the Yanks. CC, AJ and Teixeira came over and it’s was their brilliant P.R. machine at work, hinting about the Yankees new “aces” and a “1,2 punch” and yes, for 2009, it worked in their favor. But, honestly, anyone who knew AJ’s career numbers and injury record knew this was bogus. If you believed it, you were dreaming. Again, AJ Burnett is no superstar pitcher, he’s a talented pitcher that is constantly a work in progress and I’m fine with that because I never saw him as anything over than that.

(Photo: Getty)

So understand it and accept it and tell me, what other pitcher out there is better than AJ Burnett? Ubaldo Jimenez? I doubt it. I put him at the same level as AJ. 15-12 with a 3.47 ERA in 2009 and 19-8 with a 2.88 ERA in 2010. I’m sorry, 1 great and 1 good year does not a superstar pitcher make. Jimenez was 6-9 with the Rockies this year before going to the Indians. And what about Bedard? Erik Bedard was available. The Red Sox snatched him up. Well, they can have him. This is a guy that is always injured and to me, he’s over, lefty or not. There is no other starter that was available that I’d want on the mound in place of AJ Burnett.

So tonight AJ, you need to do your magic. Pitch, pitch, pitch and the offense, God willing, will get you the run support you need and hopefully that continues for you throughout the entire rest of the season. I’m pulling for you buddy, don’t make me look like a fool.

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WHY HE'S C"CY YOUNG" SABATHIA

With CC Sabathia’s most recent 1-0 complete game shutout over the Rays, he moves to 13-4 and regains sole possession of the MLB lead in wins. He also drops his ERA to a phenomenal 2.72, leads the league in games started with 20, is 2nd in innings pitched (1st is Justin Verlander), and is currently on a career best 23.2 inning scoreless streak.

Those aren’t just ace numbers, those are Cy Young Award winning numbers. Sure, some guys have a lower ERA, notably Jered Weaver, but let’s ask ourselves: Do those guys pitch in the AL East? Weaver doesn’t, and if he did, his ERA would certainly balloon moving from the pitcher friendly AL West. Josh Beckett does, but as good as he’s been he’s nowhere close to being the workhorse CC is. Simply, CC is the best of the best because he works harder than anyone else and produces numbers that can be called elite.

But you already know that CC’s been a monster this season, and you surely already know that he is, as always, in the Cy Young Award race. I’m not writing to tell you that he has a chance; I’m writing this to tell you why he’s the front runner.

Don’t misinterpret what I’ve just said, if the season ended tomorrow, Justin Verlander would likely take home the award and Weaver would be a very close second. CC Monster wouldn’t do too badly for himself, he’d likely come in 3rd or 4th in the voting, but he wouldn’t win. What I’m saying is if CC’s performance for the rest of the season follows the typical CC Sabathia pattern, he’s got it in the bag.
Why? It’s simple: CC is, and always has been, a second half player. I know it’s hard to believe, going into the second half of this season his ERA was barely a hair over 3 and leading MLB in wins. Notice how he’s gotten even better as time has progressed. As I mentioned, CC has not allowed a run since the second half of the season began, and as a result his ERA has quickly gone from what one would call great, to what one would call phenomenal. This is no coincidence, he’s always been one to pick it up in the second half.For example, flashback to his pre-Yankee days. CC spent the first half of 2008 with the Cleveland Indians, and posted a respectable 3.83 ERA to go along with a 6-8 record. He was traded to the Brewers right before the second half of the season, and proceeded to go 11-2 with a downright godly 1.65 ERA. Even more impressive, a ridiculous 7 of his 17 starts with the Brewers were complete games.I use this season as an example because it’s easier to see the difference between the two halves because he was traded. However, such a sudden and sharp increase in dominance is nothing unusual for CC. Looking back on 2009 all we remember was CC coming 4th in Cy Young Award voting, winning the ALCS MVP, and leading the team to their 27th title. What we don’t remember is how in the first half of 2009, his ERA hovered around 4 and he barely recorded a .500 record. There’s no way to argue against it: CC is a second half of the season type of guy.

The point here is, his first half of this season is by far, the best he’s ever had. If his first half was that much better than he usually is in the first half, shouldn’t we expect the second half to be better than ever? If he follows his normal pattern, expect second half dominance, that's my opinion anyway.




--Grant Cederquist, BYB Staff Writer

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