WHY HE'S SUPER NOVA

It's a pretty unanimous decision among the Yankees fan base. Ivan Nova is in the rotation as far as we are concerned for 2011. He started out the Spring well and has continued all the way through to his dominant 6 inning no-hitter in his last outing. Nova has an absolutely stellar 1.29 Spring Training ERA. This is easily the best of any of the Yanks' starting pitchers, with Banuelos' 1.86 ERA being the only competition. Ivan Nova has all but bought a ticket straight to the Bronx. Yes, Nova's gonna be a big shot in 2011, stepping on the mound for the Yanks every 5th day and showing off his talent, but what about after 2011?

Enter, the Killer B's. Banuelos, Betances, and Brackman, all of whom I've covered in depth in ATTACK OF THE KILLER B'S, are expected to be ready by 2012 and beyond. CC Sabathia and Phil Hughes already pretty much have a guaranteed spot in the Yanks rotation for years to come, and AJ's spot may be more questionable, but think of it this way, I can't see the Yanks letting all that money they're spending on him go to waste, so he'll likely have his #2 or 3 spot sealed anyway. That leaves two holes, one of which is currently occupied by Ivan Nova, but when the Yanks' top two pitching prospects are ready for the big leagues, do you really think they're going to have them sit around in Scranton or in the Bronx bullpen while Nova keeps his spot? I don't think so. My thinking is either Betances or Brackman could end up in the bullpen. Hell, I even think one of them could be our future closer, but I don't see both of them going there. So that leaves us with a projected 2012 rotation of:

1. CC Sabathia
2. Phil Hughes
3. AJ Burnett
4. Manny Banuelos
5. Dellin Betances or Andrew Brackman

So, my question is this? Where does Super Nova go? Answer: The bullpen.In 2011, the longman spot is currently open in the pen, and it's likely to go to either Freddy Garcia. But, neither have contracts beyond 2011, so, in 2012, there will be a spot open in the bullpen. I say that long man role goes to Nova. He could be the long man for a single year, 2012, and why not?

2012 will in all likelihood be Mo's last season, and assuming Soriano is still around, he'll move into the closer role. So who gets to be the setup man? Sure, it could be Robertson or Joba if they are still in New York, but a very strong case for Nova could be made as well.

Here's why. It's established that Nova is much better against players the first time around the order. The problem comes the 2nd or 3rd time around the order. In 2010, in the first time through the lineup Nova held opposing batters to a .196 batting average. The 2nd and 3rd time respectively, the opposition's average's ballooned to .246 and .400 respectively. Big difference.So what if he only saw batters 1 time through the order, not 2? Makes sense doesn't it? Nova's got the stuff of a dominant setup man or even closer. A fastball that touches 97 MPH is nice, but what if every time he went out to throw that fastball, he was well-rested and didn't have to pace, Nova may be throwing 98 or 99, right? How hard would his already fantastic curve ball bite if every time he snapped his wrist it was nice and fresh and ready to go? I just think if Nova can hold batters to a .196 average and a .286 OBP the first time around while trying to pace himself as a starter, what damage could he do to batters if he was going all out one time through the order for just 1 or 2 innings? Think about it.

Nova may be in the rotation for now, but don't be surprised if by 2012 or 2013 we're seeing him in the 7th, 8th, or even 9th innings. It makes sense, doesn't it?



--Grant Cederquist, BYB Staff Writer




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